The latest analysis from Circana examines breaksfast cereals in convenience in terms of value sales and market share
The breakfast cereals category performance mirrors the wider food market with value sales slowing. However, with value sales now in decline in the L13W vs LY down -0.6%, breakfast cereals are now under-performing the wider food market, which remains up on last by 1.6%.
Despite average unit price dropping faster in breakfast cereals than in the wider food market, volumes don’t look to be picking up, with volume sales down 1.8% in the L13W vs LY. The drop in price has been driven by an increase in proportion of promotional investment of value sales (% giveaway) which is up 2.3PP vs LY in the L13W. The growth in promotional investment has been driven by % VSOD predominantly but % deal depths are also up on LY.
With just a 4.5% value share of breakfast cereals, symbols and independents have a significant under-trade in this market compared to their share of food. Symbols and independents are under-performing the market with value sales down 1.2% in the L12M vs LY and down 3.6% down in the L4W vs LY. As a result, symbols and independents have lost share in the breakfast cereal market, losing 0.2PP of value share in the L12M, albeit there is some recovery in the L4W, with a share loss of just -0.1PP. With branded manufacturers battling private label for private label for volume share in supermarket and prices falling as a result in major multiple grocer supermarkets, the outlook for symbols and independents looks challenging over the coming months.
What’s next for breakfast cereals?
Cereal is having a tough time of late, with customers moving to own label due in an effort to save some money. Stores with own label offerings may have an advantage over ones that only carry branded lines but in a space-strapped convenience store, it could be tough to stock both. For many stores, cereal is a distress purchase for its customers so a core range is probably sufficient for this category.
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