The latest analysis from Circana examines savoury frozen in convenience in terms of value sales and market share
Savoury Frozen category value sales have been on a downward trend over this year. Value sales are up on last year (LY) over the last 12 months (12M) by 4.7% but were just 1.0% up in the latest 13 week (L13W) on LY and have dropped into decline in the latest four weeks (L4W) versus (vs) LY, down 2.7%. The growth slow down/decline has been driven by a slowdown in inflation, with average volume price down on LY in the L13W, with volume not picking up.
Average volume price slowdown has been driven by a combination of price increases lapping and by an increase in promotional investment with % giveaway 1.9PPs up on LY in the L13W. The increase in promotional investment has been driven exclusively by increasing % deal depths.
The symbols and independent channel has a big under share in the Savoury Frozen category relative to the channel’s share of food in total, at just 3.9%. Symbols and independents savoury frozen value sales were up 2.4% in the L12M vs LY, but like the market in total, sales nosedived in the L4W vs LY, with the hot weather encouraging people to buy more fresh produce. As a result, the symbols and independent channel has lost share of the savoury frozen market, down 0.08PP in the L12M vs LY and 0.09PPs in the L4W vs LY. However, interestingly, symbols and independents have lost share not to the supermarkets, but to the major multiple grocer convenience channel which gained nearly 0.2PPs of share over the L12M. In conclusion, there does look to be a market for savoury frozen food in the convenience channel, but major multiple grocer convenience competitive advantages mean that channel is winning and Symbols and Independents losing.
What’s next for savoury frozen?
Time-poor consumers and their children will be looking to stock up their freezers in anticipation for back to school and this is where the category can shine. With the evenings getting darker, the big night in will also create an opportunity for retailers embracing frozen savoury as people look to entertain at home to save money, especially in the run-up to Christmas. The sustainability and food waste angle hasn’t gone away either, with frozen foods helping to reduce wastage.
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